Fencibles United vs Nelson Suburbs Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Fencibles United and 1.18 for Nelson Suburbs, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Fencibles United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Fencibles United or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Fencibles United win44%

Draw26%

Nelson Suburbs win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Fencibles United home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fencibles United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Fencibles United and 1.18 for Nelson Suburbs, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Fencibles United

2026-08-15T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Nelson Suburbs · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-25T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Auckland City · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-04T06:00:00.000Z · H vs South Auckland Rangers · 3-0 (W)
2025-08-30T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Tauranga City United · 3-3 (D)
2025-08-23T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Bay Olympic · 1-0 (W)

Nelson Suburbs

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.