Fiorentina vs Bologna Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.18 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Fiorentina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Fiorentina or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Fiorentina win44%

Draw26%

Bologna win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fiorentina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Fiorentina and 1.18 for Bologna, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Fiorentina

Bologna

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-01-18T14:00:00.000Z · Fiorentina 2-1 Bologna (Serie A)
2025-10-26T17:00:00.000Z · Fiorentina 2-2 Bologna (Serie A)
2025-05-18T18:45:00.000Z · Fiorentina 3-2 Bologna (Serie A)
2024-12-15T14:00:00.000Z · Fiorentina 0-1 Bologna (Serie A)
2024-02-14T18:00:00.000Z · Fiorentina 0-2 Bologna (Serie A)
2024-01-09T20:00:00.000Z · Fiorentina 0-0 Bologna (Coppa Italia)
2023-11-12T14:00:00.000Z · Fiorentina 2-1 Bologna (Serie A)
2023-02-05T17:00:00.000Z · Fiorentina 1-2 Bologna (Serie A)
2022-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · Fiorentina 1-2 Bologna (Serie A)
2022-03-13T11:30:00.000Z · Fiorentina 1-0 Bologna (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Bologna	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Cagliari	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Como	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fiorentina	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Frosinone	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Genoa	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Inter	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Juventus	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lazio	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Lecce	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	AC Milan	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Monza	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Napoli	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Parma	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	AS Roma	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Sassuolo	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Torino	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Udinese	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Venezia	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.