Flamengo vs Fluminense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.90 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Flamengo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.

Model pick

Flamengo to Win

54.4% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.63 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Flamengo win54%

Draw25%

Fluminense win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–013.0%
1–111.7%
2–010.6%
2–19.5%
0–08.0%

Why the model likes this

Flamengo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flamengo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 25% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Flamengo and 0.90 for Fluminense, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Flamengo

2026-08-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-29T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Internacional · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Chapecoense-sc · 4-0 (W)

Fluminense

2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-11T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Independ. Rivadavia · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-09T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	-2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	1	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.