Fluminense vs Cruzeiro Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.15 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Fluminense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

Fluminense or Draw

68.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Fluminense win42%

Draw27%

Cruzeiro win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.7%
1–011.0%
0–19.2%
2–18.7%
0–08.0%

Why the model likes this

Fluminense home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cruzeiro away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Fluminense

2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-11T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Independ. Rivadavia · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-09T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-0 (D)

Cruzeiro

2026-08-13T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-05T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-02T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Chapecoense-sc · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-31T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Coritiba · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-31T23:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-1 Cruzeiro (Serie A)
2025-11-09T19:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 0-0 Cruzeiro (Serie A)
2025-07-17T22:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 0-2 Cruzeiro (Serie A)
2024-10-04T00:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-0 Cruzeiro (Serie A)
2024-06-20T00:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 0-2 Cruzeiro (Serie A)
2023-09-21T00:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-0 Cruzeiro (Serie A)
2023-05-11T00:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 2-0 Cruzeiro (Serie A)
2022-07-13T00:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 3-0 Cruzeiro (Copa Do Brasil)
2022-06-23T22:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 2-1 Cruzeiro (Copa Do Brasil)
2019-10-10T00:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 0-0 Cruzeiro (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	-2	31
10	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	1	27
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.