Estádio do Maracanã · Referee Anderson Daronco, Brazil · Analysis updated 00:47 UTC
Fluminense vs Palmeiras Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.17 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Fluminense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws roughly 64% of the time.
Model pick
Fluminense or Draw
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–111.2%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–17.8%
Why the model likes this
Fluminense home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Palmeiras away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 2.72 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 3.10 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 2.65 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 1.40 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | 2.88 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.20 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.65 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.20 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.22 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 1.08 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 0.5 | 7.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 8.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 4.5 | 1.07 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | 1.85 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | No | 1.85 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 1.45 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 10Bet |
Recent form
Fluminense
- 2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-11T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Independ. Rivadavia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-09T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-0 (D)
Palmeiras
- 2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Porteno · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza EC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortaleza EC · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-26T00:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-2 Palmeiras (Serie A)
- 2025-11-23T00:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 0-0 Palmeiras (Serie A)
- 2025-07-23T22:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-2 Palmeiras (Serie A)
- 2024-12-08T19:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-0 Palmeiras (Serie A)
- 2024-07-25T00:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-0 Palmeiras (Serie A)
- 2023-12-03T19:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 0-1 Palmeiras (Serie A)
- 2023-08-06T00:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 2-1 Palmeiras (Serie A)
- 2022-08-27T22:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-1 Palmeiras (Serie A)
- 2022-05-08T19:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-1 Palmeiras (Serie A)
- 2021-11-14T21:15:00.000Z · Fluminense 2-1 Palmeiras (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 48 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 42 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 40 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 33 |
| 6 | Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 33 |
| 7 | Corinthians | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 32 |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 31 |
| 9 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 30 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 30 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 29 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 25 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 17 | Santos | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -6 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco DA Gama | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -8 | 22 |
| 19 | Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -10 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | -23 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.