Sweden · Division 2 - Norrland · Norrland - Relegation Round12:00
FranstaLLLLD

12:00 UTC

Saturday, 12 September 2026

IFK UmeåWDLLL

· Analysis updated 23:47 UTC

Fransta vs IFK Umeå Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.59 expected goals for Fransta and 1.36 for IFK Umeå, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Fransta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws roughly 36% of the time.

Model pick

Fransta to Win

63.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.59 – 1.36

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Fransta win64%
Draw18%
IFK Umeå win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals75%
Over 3.5 goals56%
Both teams to score69%

Correct score

  • 2–18.8%
  • 3–17.6%
  • 1–16.8%
  • 2–06.4%
  • 2–26.0%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Fransta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 18% / 19% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 2.59 goals for Fransta and 1.36 for IFK Umeå, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 69%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

  • Model confidence

    Fransta to Win is the headline pick at 64% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Fransta

    IFK Umeå

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      Division 2 - Norrland table

      Full league page →
      #TeamPWDLGDPts
      1Skellefteå128311827
      2Täfteå128132125
      3IFK Luleå128131825
      4Boden12453117
      5Umeå FC Akademi12255-1211
      6Storfors12228-188
      7IFK Umeå121110-284
      1Kubikenborg12723923
      2Gottne12723523
      3Lucksta12534018
      4IFK Östersund12453317
      5Friska Viljor12264212
      6Umea FF12255-411
      7Fransta12237-159

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.