Italy · Serie A · Regular Season - 513:00

13:00 UTC

Sunday, 20 September 2026

Como

Stadio Benito Stirpe · Analysis updated 07:06 UTC

Frosinone vs Como Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.22 for Como, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Frosinone the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.

Model pick

Frosinone to Win

45.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Frosinone win46%
Draw25%
Como win30%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Both teams to score56%

Correct score

  • 1–111.7%
  • 1–09.6%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 2–07.6%
  • 0–17.4%

Why the model likes this

  • Frosinone home form

    8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Como away threat

    Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Frosinone to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 25% / 30% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.58 goals for Frosinone and 1.22 for Como, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Frosinone

  • 2026-08-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lazio · 1-2 (L)
  • 2026-08-01T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Benevento · 2-2 (D)
  • 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sambenedettese · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-07-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Ascoli · 1-0 (W)
  • 2026-07-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone U20 · 1-0 (W)

Como

  • 2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 3-2 (W)
  • 2026-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Ula · 3-1 (W)
  • 2026-07-24T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Atalanta000000
2Bologna000000
3Cagliari000000
4Como000000
5Fiorentina000000
6Frosinone000000
7Genoa000000
8Inter000000
9Juventus000000
10Lazio000000
11Lecce000000
12AC Milan000000
13Monza000000
14Napoli000000
15Parma000000
16AS Roma000000
17Sassuolo000000
18Torino000000
19Udinese000000
20Venezia000000

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.