Stadio Benito Stirpe · Analysis updated 07:06 UTC
Frosinone vs Como Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.22 for Como, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Frosinone the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.
Model pick
Frosinone to Win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.6%
- 0–17.4%
Why the model likes this
Frosinone home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Como away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Frosinone to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 25% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Frosinone and 1.22 for Como, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Frosinone
- 2026-08-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lazio · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Benevento · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sambenedettese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Ascoli · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone U20 · 1-0 (W)
Como
- 2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Ula · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-24T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.