Getafe vs Alaves Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Getafe and 1.88 for Alaves, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Alaves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.

Model pick

Alaves to Win

54.0% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.17 – 1.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Getafe win24%

Draw23%

Alaves win54%

Double chance 1X

46%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–110.4%
1–29.8%
0–18.9%
0–28.4%
1–36.1%

Why the model likes this

Getafe home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Alaves away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alaves to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 24% / 23% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Getafe and 1.88 for Alaves, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Getafe

2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Valladolid · 0-0 (D)

Alaves

2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-07T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-31T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-25T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Alaves	1	1	0	3	3
2	Sevilla	1	1	0	1	3
3	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0
4	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
5	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0
6	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
7	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0
8	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0
9	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0
10	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0
11	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0
12	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0
13	Elche	0	0	0	0	0
14	Levante	0	0	0	0	0
15	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0
16	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0
17	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0
18	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0
19	Rayo Vallecano	1	0	1	-1	0
20	Getafe	1	0	1	-3	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.