Spain · La Liga · Regular Season - 2316:00
GetafeL

16:00 UTC

Sunday, 7 February 2027

Coliseum · Analysis updated 07:07 UTC

Getafe vs Villarreal Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Getafe and 1.41 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Villarreal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

Villarreal or Draw

67.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.41

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Getafe win32%
Draw26%
Villarreal win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Both teams to score53%

Correct score

  • 1–112.4%
  • 0–110.3%
  • 1–08.8%
  • 1–28.8%
  • 2–17.5%

Why the model likes this

  • Getafe home form

    9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.

  • Villarreal away threat

    Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Villarreal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 32% / 26% / 42% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.20 goals for Getafe and 1.41 for Villarreal, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Getafe

  • 2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 0-3 (L)
  • 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 0-1 (L)
  • 2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 1-4 (L)
  • 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Valladolid · 0-0 (D)

Villarreal

  • 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Galatasaray · 2-1 (W)
  • 2026-08-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 1-0 (W)
  • 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-3 (L)
  • 2026-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Como · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ula · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Alaves110033
2Sevilla110013
3Barcelona000000
4Real Madrid000000
5Villarreal000000
6Atletico Madrid000000
7Real Betis000000
8Celta Vigo000000
9Valencia000000
10Real Sociedad000000
11Espanyol000000
12Athletic Club000000
13Elche000000
14Levante000000
15Osasuna000000
16Racing Santander000000
17Deportivo La Coruna000000
18Malaga000000
19Rayo Vallecano1001-10
20Getafe1001-30

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.