GIL Vicente vs Estrela Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.90 for Estrela, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives GIL Vicente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws roughly 40% of the time.

Model pick

GIL Vicente to Win

59.7% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.85 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

GIL Vicente win60%

Draw22%

Estrela win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–011.8%
2–010.9%
1–110.7%
2–19.8%
3–06.7%

Why the model likes this

GIL Vicente home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GIL Vicente to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 22% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for GIL Vicente and 0.90 for Estrela, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

GIL Vicente

2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Felgueiras 1932 · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-16T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 0-3 (L)

Estrela

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	48	88
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	65	82
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	49	80
4	SC Braga	34	16	11	7	28	59
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	13	56
6	GIL Vicente	34	13	11	10	9	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	-12	43
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	-17	42
9	Vitória SC	34	12	6	16	-12	42
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	-3	39
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	-17	39
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	-22	36
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	-9	36
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	-8	34
15	Estrela	34	6	12	16	-18	30
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	-26	30
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	-28	28
18	AVS	34	3	12	19	-40	21

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.