Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo · Referee L. Lobo Medina · Analysis updated 05:21 UTC
Gimnasia L.P. vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Gimnasia L.P. and 0.86 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Gimnasia L.P. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.
Model pick
Gimnasia L.P. to Win
48.7% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.7%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–010.8%
- 2–010.1%
- 0–19.3%
Why the model likes this
Gimnasia L.P. home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimnasia L.P. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 28% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Gimnasia L.P. and 0.86 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Recent form
Gimnasia L.P.
- 2026-08-09T20:45:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-29T22:15:00.000Z · H vs River Plate · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-24T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 3-1 (W)
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.