Víctor Legrotaglie · Referee Juan Pablo Loustau, Argentina · Analysis updated 21:55 UTC
Gimnasia M. vs Union Santa Fe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Gimnasia M. and 0.72 for Union Santa Fe, a combined total of 2.01. That distribution gives Gimnasia M. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.
Model pick
Gimnasia M. to Win
50.3% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.3%
- 0–013.4%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–011.2%
- 0–19.6%
Why the model likes this
Gimnasia M. home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimnasia M. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 29% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Gimnasia M. and 0.72 for Union Santa Fe, a combined 2.01 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 37%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Recent form
Gimnasia M.
- 2026-08-09T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Cordoba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Santa Fe · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-28T22:00:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-24T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa Y Justicia · 2-1 (W)
Union Santa Fe
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.