England · Non League Premier - Southern South · Regular Season - 614:00

14:00 UTC

Monday, 31 August 2026

· Analysis updated 02:44 UTC

Gloucester City vs Evesham United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Gloucester City and 1.72 for Evesham United, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Evesham United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.

Model pick

Evesham United or Draw

63.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.72

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Gloucester City win36%
Draw23%
Evesham United win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Both teams to score66%

Correct score

  • 1–19.9%
  • 1–28.5%
  • 2–18.0%
  • 2–26.8%
  • 0–16.2%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Evesham United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 36% / 23% / 41% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.60 goals for Gloucester City and 1.72 for Evesham United, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

  • Model confidence

    Evesham United or Draw is the headline pick at 64% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Gloucester City

    Evesham United

    • 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chichester City · 3-0 (W)
    • 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Frome Town · 0-4 (L)
    • 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Basingstoke Town · 4-2 (W)
    • 2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Cleeve · 1-1 (D)
    • 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cheltenham · 0-3 (L)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Non League Premier - Southern South table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Chertsey Town321047
    2Uxbridge321047
    3Bath City321027
    4Frome Town320156
    5Taunton Town320126
    6Hanworth Villa320126
    7Evesham United320116
    8Hanwell Town312015
    9Yate Town312015
    10Plymouth Parkway311164
    11Sholing311104
    12Chippenham Town3111-14
    13Bracknell Town3111-64
    14Basingstoke Town3102-13
    15Berkhamsted3102-23
    16Poole Town3102-23
    17Chichester City3102-33
    18Havant & Wville3102-33
    19Malvern Town3021-32
    20Gloucester City3012-21
    21Gosport Borough3012-21
    22Wimborne Town3012-31

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.