· Analysis updated 02:44 UTC
Gloucester City vs Evesham United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Gloucester City and 1.72 for Evesham United, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Evesham United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.
Model pick
Evesham United or Draw
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.2%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Evesham United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 36% / 23% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Gloucester City and 1.72 for Evesham United, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
Evesham United or Draw is the headline pick at 64% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Gloucester City
Evesham United
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chichester City · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Frome Town · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Basingstoke Town · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Cleeve · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cheltenham · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Southern South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chertsey Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Uxbridge | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Bath City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Frome Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Taunton Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Hanworth Villa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Evesham United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Hanwell Town | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Yate Town | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Plymouth Parkway | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 11 | Sholing | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Chippenham Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Bracknell Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -6 | 4 |
| 14 | Basingstoke Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Berkhamsted | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Poole Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 17 | Chichester City | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | Havant & Wville | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 19 | Malvern Town | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Gloucester City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 21 | Gosport Borough | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 22 | Wimborne Town | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.