Gremio vs Fluminense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Gremio and 1.28 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Fluminense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.

Model pick

Fluminense or Draw

64.7% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.22 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Gremio win35%

Draw27%

Fluminense win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.8%
0–110.5%
1–010.1%
0–08.2%
1–28.2%

Why the model likes this

Gremio home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fluminense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 35% / 27% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Gremio and 1.28 for Fluminense, a combined 2.50 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Gremio

2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-05T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-02T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-30T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 1-1 (D)

Fluminense

2026-08-11T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Independ. Rivadavia · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-09T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-30T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Bahia · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	22	14	6	2	22	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	22	12	4	6	11	40
4	Fluminense	22	9	8	5	5	35
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
8	RB Bragantino	21	9	4	8	4	31
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	-2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	1	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.