ZLX Stadium · Analysis updated 03:52 UTC
Hamilton Academical vs Cove Rangers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.56 expected goals for Hamilton Academical and 0.44 for Cove Rangers, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Hamilton Academical the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws roughly 17% of the time.
Model pick
Hamilton Academical to Win
83.3% probability
Expected goals
2.56 – 0.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
17%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–016.4%
- 3–014.0%
- 1–012.8%
- 4–09.0%
- 2–17.1%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hamilton Academical to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 83% / 12% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.56 goals for Hamilton Academical and 0.44 for Cove Rangers, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 33%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Model confidence
Hamilton Academical to Win is the headline pick at 83% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Hamilton Academical
Cove Rangers
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamilton Academical | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 2 | East Kilbride | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 3 | Ross County | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Peterhead | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Alloa Athletic | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | East Fife | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Airdrie United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 2 |
| 8 | Cove Rangers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 9 | Queen of the South | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 10 | Montrose | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.