England · Non League Premier - Southern South · Regular Season - 414:00

14:00 UTC

Saturday, 22 August 2026

· Analysis updated 23:45 UTC

Hanworth Villa vs Evesham United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Hanworth Villa and 1.13 for Evesham United, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Hanworth Villa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.

Model pick

Hanworth Villa to Win

48.4% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Hanworth Villa win48%
Draw25%
Evesham United win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Both teams to score54%

Correct score

  • 1–111.8%
  • 1–010.5%
  • 2–19.4%
  • 2–08.4%
  • 0–17.4%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Hanworth Villa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 27% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.60 goals for Hanworth Villa and 1.13 for Evesham United, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

  • Model confidence

    Hanworth Villa to Win is the headline pick at 48% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Hanworth Villa

    Evesham United

    • 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chichester City · 3-0 (W)
    • 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Frome Town · 0-4 (L)
    • 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Basingstoke Town · 4-2 (W)
    • 2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Cleeve · 1-1 (D)
    • 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cheltenham · 0-3 (L)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Non League Premier - Southern South table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Chertsey Town321047
    2Uxbridge321047
    3Bath City321027
    4Frome Town320156
    5Taunton Town320126
    6Hanworth Villa320126
    7Evesham United320116
    8Hanwell Town312015
    9Yate Town312015
    10Plymouth Parkway311164
    11Sholing311104
    12Chippenham Town3111-14
    13Bracknell Town3111-64
    14Basingstoke Town3102-13
    15Berkhamsted3102-23
    16Poole Town3102-23
    17Chichester City3102-33
    18Havant & Wville3102-33
    19Malvern Town3021-32
    20Gloucester City3012-21
    21Gosport Borough3012-21
    22Wimborne Town3012-31

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.