Whites Hill Reserve · Analysis updated 02:53 UTC
Holland Park Hawks vs Robina City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Holland Park Hawks and 1.89 for Robina City, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Robina City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Robina City or Draw
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.4%
Why the model likes this
Robina City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Robina City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 34% / 22% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Holland Park Hawks and 1.89 for Robina City, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 69%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
Holland Park Hawks
Robina City
- 2026-08-15T06:15:00.000Z · A vs Capalaba · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T06:00:00.000Z · A vs North Star · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Holland Park Hawks · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-07-19T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Redlands United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-11T06:30:00.000Z · A vs St George Willawong · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Queensland Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Strikers | 22 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 54 |
| 2 | Broadbeach United | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 31 | 52 |
| 3 | SC Wanderers | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 37 |
| 4 | Ipswich | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 35 |
| 5 | Robina City | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 32 |
| 6 | Caboolture | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 31 |
| 7 | Redlands United | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 30 |
| 8 | Holland Park Hawks | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -8 | 30 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -2 | 27 |
| 10 | North Star | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -19 | 21 |
| 11 | St George Willawong | 22 | 4 | 1 | 17 | -39 | 13 |
| 12 | Capalaba | 22 | 3 | 2 | 17 | -36 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.