Nu Stadium · Referee G. J. Gonzalez · Analysis updated 04:12 UTC
Inter Miami vs Orlando City SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.67 expected goals for Inter Miami and 1.71 for Orlando City SC, a combined total of 5.38. That distribution gives Inter Miami the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws roughly 27% of the time.
Model pick
Inter Miami to Win
73.2% probability
Expected goals
3.67 – 1.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–16.5%
- 4–16.0%
- 3–25.6%
- 2–15.3%
- 4–25.1%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inter Miami to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 13% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.67 goals for Inter Miami and 1.71 for Orlando City SC, a combined 5.38 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 89% and both teams to score at 79%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Model confidence
Inter Miami to Win is the headline pick at 73% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Inter Miami
Orlando City SC
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 35 |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 34 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FC | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 34 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 33 |
| 5 | Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 27 |
| 6 | FC Dallas | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 27 |
| 7 | St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 26 |
| 8 | Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 24 |
| 9 | Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 24 |
| 10 | Minnesota United FC | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | -5 | 24 |
| 11 | Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 22 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -6 | 22 |
| 13 | San Diego | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 21 |
| 14 | Austin | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | -28 | 14 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 43 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 38 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 30 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 29 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 6 | FC Cincinnati | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | New York City FC | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 25 |
| 9 | DC United | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | -3 | 24 |
| 10 | Orlando City SC | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 21 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | -7 | 20 |
| 13 | CF Montreal | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 17 |
| 14 | Philadelphia Union | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 | Atlanta United FC | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -13 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.