Centralnyj Stadion · Analysis updated 23:46 UTC
Irtysh vs Aktobe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Irtysh and 1.45 for Aktobe, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Aktobe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Aktobe or Draw
70.4% probability
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.5%
- 0–27.9%
Why the model likes this
Aktobe away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aktobe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 30% / 26% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for Irtysh and 1.45 for Aktobe, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Irtysh
Aktobe
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaisar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atyrau · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyzyl-Zhar · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Okzhetpes · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Altay · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 27 | 52 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 27 | 48 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 38 |
| 4 | Aktobe | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 35 |
| 5 | Okzhetpes | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 33 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 31 |
| 7 | Ulytau | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Zhenys | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | -3 | 26 |
| 9 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 23 |
| 10 | Kaspiy | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 22 |
| 11 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | -7 | 22 |
| 12 | Atyrau | 20 | 3 | 11 | 6 | -4 | 20 |
| 13 | Kaisar | 21 | 3 | 11 | 7 | -8 | 20 |
| 14 | Zhetysu | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -14 | 19 |
| 15 | Irtysh | 20 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -8 | 17 |
| 16 | Altay | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -16 | 17 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.