JFK Ventspils vs Super Nova 2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for JFK Ventspils and 1.18 for Super Nova 2, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives JFK Ventspils the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

JFK Ventspils or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

JFK Ventspils win44%

Draw26%

Super Nova 2 win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

JFK Ventspils home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Super Nova 2 away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates JFK Ventspils to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for JFK Ventspils and 1.18 for Super Nova 2, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

JFK Ventspils

2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Super Nova 2 · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Smiltene · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Riga Mariners · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs JDFS Alberts · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Skanste · 3-0 (W)

Super Nova 2

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mārupe · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs JFK Ventspils · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Riga Mariners · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs JDFS Alberts · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Riga FC II · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · JFK Ventspils 0-2 Super Nova 2 (1. Liga)
2026-04-11T14:30:00.000Z · JFK Ventspils 1-3 Super Nova 2 (1. Liga)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.