Kaspiy vs Kairat Almaty Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.81 expected goals for Kaspiy and 1.88 for Kairat Almaty, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Kairat Almaty the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws roughly 37% of the time.

Model pick

Kairat Almaty to Win

62.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

0.81 – 1.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Kaspiy win15%

Draw22%

Kairat Almaty win63%

Double chance 1X

37%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

85%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

0–112.8%
0–212.1%
1–110.3%
1–29.7%
0–37.6%

Why the model likes this

Kairat Almaty away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kairat Almaty to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 15% / 22% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.81 goals for Kaspiy and 1.88 for Kairat Almaty, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 47%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Kaspiy

Kairat Almaty

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulytau · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Levski Sofia · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia Nicosia · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ordabasy · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ordabasy	22	16	4	2	27	52
2	Kairat Almaty	21	14	6	1	27	48
3	FC Astana	20	11	5	4	12	38
4	Aktobe	22	10	5	7	6	35
5	Okzhetpes	21	9	6	6	1	33
6	Yelimay Semey	20	8	7	5	5	31
7	Ulytau	22	7	7	8	-6	28
8	Zhenys	21	6	8	7	-3	26
9	Kyzyl-Zhar	21	6	5	10	-5	23
10	Kaspiy	21	6	4	11	-7	22
11	FK Tobol Kostanay	20	6	4	10	-7	22
12	Atyrau	20	3	11	6	-4	20
13	Kaisar	21	3	11	7	-8	20
14	Zhetysu	22	4	7	11	-14	19
15	Irtysh	20	3	8	9	-8	17
16	Altay	22	3	8	11	-16	17

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.