Launceston United vs Ulverstone Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Launceston United and 1.18 for Ulverstone, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Launceston United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Launceston United or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Launceston United win44%

Draw26%

Ulverstone win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Launceston United home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ulverstone away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Launceston United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Launceston United and 1.18 for Ulverstone, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Launceston United

2026-08-08T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Glenorchy Knights · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-01T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Kingborough Lions · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-25T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Devonport City · 0-6 (L)
2026-07-22T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Launceston City · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-19T04:30:00.000Z · A vs South East Utd. · 1-4 (L)

Ulverstone

2026-08-08T04:30:00.000Z · H vs South East Utd. · 3-4 (L)
2026-08-02T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Clarence Zebras · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-19T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Glenorchy Knights · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-11T04:00:00.000Z · A vs South Hobart · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-04T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Kingborough Lions · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-06-20T04:30:00.000Z · Launceston United 3-2 Ulverstone (Tasmania NPL)
2026-03-22T01:15:00.000Z · Launceston United 1-1 Ulverstone (Tasmania NPL)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.