Lazio vs AS Roma Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for Lazio and 1.23 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives AS Roma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

AS Roma or Draw

73.8% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

0.87 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Lazio win26%

Draw29%

AS Roma win45%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

0–115.0%
1–113.1%
0–012.2%
1–010.7%
0–29.2%

Why the model likes this

AS Roma away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AS Roma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 26% / 29% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.87 goals for Lazio and 1.23 for AS Roma, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 41%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.

Recent form

Lazio

AS Roma

2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Cannes · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	38	27	6	5	54	87
2	Napoli	38	23	7	8	22	76
3	AS Roma	38	23	4	11	28	73
4	Como	38	20	11	7	36	71
5	AC Milan	38	20	10	8	18	70
6	Juventus	38	19	12	7	27	69
7	Atalanta	38	15	14	9	15	59
8	Bologna	38	16	8	14	3	56
9	Lazio	38	14	12	12	1	54
10	Udinese	38	14	8	16	-3	50
11	Sassuolo	38	14	7	17	-4	49
12	Torino	38	12	9	17	-19	45
13	Parma	38	11	12	15	-18	45
14	Cagliari	38	11	10	17	-13	43
15	Fiorentina	38	9	15	14	-9	42
16	Genoa	38	10	11	17	-10	41
17	Lecce	38	10	8	20	-22	38
18	Cremonese	38	8	10	20	-25	34
19	Hellas Verona	38	3	12	23	-36	21
20	Pisa	38	2	12	24	-45	18

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.