Lazio vs Como Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.82 expected goals for Lazio and 1.34 for Como, a combined total of 2.17. That distribution gives Como the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.

Model pick

Como to Win

48.9% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

0.82 – 1.34

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Lazio win23%

Draw28%

Como win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

0–115.4%
1–112.7%
0–011.5%
0–210.3%
1–09.4%

Why the model likes this

Como away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Como to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 23% / 28% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.82 goals for Lazio and 1.34 for Como, a combined 2.17 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 37% and both teams to score at 42%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.

Recent form

Lazio

Como

2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Ula · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-24T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	38	27	6	5	54	87
2	Napoli	38	23	7	8	22	76
3	AS Roma	38	23	4	11	28	73
4	Como	38	20	11	7	36	71
5	AC Milan	38	20	10	8	18	70
6	Juventus	38	19	12	7	27	69
7	Atalanta	38	15	14	9	15	59
8	Bologna	38	16	8	14	3	56
9	Lazio	38	14	12	12	1	54
10	Udinese	38	14	8	16	-3	50
11	Sassuolo	38	14	7	17	-4	49
12	Torino	38	12	9	17	-19	45
13	Parma	38	11	12	15	-18	45
14	Cagliari	38	11	10	17	-13	43
15	Fiorentina	38	9	15	14	-9	42
16	Genoa	38	10	11	17	-10	41
17	Lecce	38	10	8	20	-22	38
18	Cremonese	38	8	10	20	-25	34
19	Hellas Verona	38	3	12	23	-36	21
20	Pisa	38	2	12	24	-45	18

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.