Stadio Via del Mare · Analysis updated 07:06 UTC
Lecce vs Monza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Lecce and 1.37 for Monza, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Lecce the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.
Model pick
Lecce or Draw
68.4% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.0%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–06.7%
Why the model likes this
Lecce home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lecce to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Lecce and 1.37 for Monza, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Recent form
Lecce
- 2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SS Monopoli · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bistrica · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Istra 1961 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Politehnica Timisoara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Szombathelyi Haladas · 1-0 (W)
Monza
- 2026-08-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Avellino · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Padova · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Galatasaray · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs PRO Vercelli · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.