England · Non League Premier - Southern Central · Regular Season - 314:00

21

Saturday, 15 August 2026

· Analysis updated 23:45 UTC

Leighton Town vs Worcester City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Leighton Town and 0.98 for Worcester City, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Leighton Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.

Model pick

Leighton Town to Win

55.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.76 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Leighton Town win56%
Draw24%
Worcester City win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Both teams to score52%

Correct score

  • 1–011.4%
  • 1–111.2%
  • 2–010.0%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 0–06.5%

Why the model likes this

  • Worcester City away threat

    Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Leighton Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 21% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.76 goals for Leighton Town and 0.98 for Worcester City, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Leighton Town

    Worcester City

    • 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leighton Town · 1-2 (L)
    • 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Alvechurch · 1-3 (L)
    • 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stratford Town · 1-1 (D)
    • 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Merthyr Town · 1-0 (W)
    • 2026-07-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Evesham United · 0-1 (L)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Non League Premier - Southern Central table

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    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.