· Analysis updated 02:25 UTC
Leiston vs Bishop's Stortford Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Leiston and 0.85 for Bishop's Stortford, a combined total of 2.46. That distribution gives Leiston the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws roughly 45% of the time.
Model pick
Leiston to Win
55.4% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–011.1%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.5%
Why the model likes this
Leiston home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leiston to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 25% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Leiston and 0.85 for Bishop's Stortford, a combined 2.46 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 45% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Recent form
Leiston
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rushall Olympic · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Stortford · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Anstey Nomads · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gorleston · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Aveley · 4-2 (W)
Bishop's Stortford
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Southern Central table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Bury Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Kettering Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Alvechurch | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Stourbridge | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Bromsgrove Sporting | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Rushall Olympic | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Anstey Nomads | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Leighton Town | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Leiston | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Racing Club Warwick | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Banbury United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Redditch United | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Halesowen Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Needham Market | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Stratford Town | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 17 | Hitchin Town | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 | Leamington | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 19 | Worcester City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 20 | Peterborough Sports | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 21 | Bishop's Stortford | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 22 | Stamford | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.