Lille vs Marseille Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Lille and 1.26 for Marseille, a combined total of 3.02. That distribution gives Lille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.

Model pick

Lille to Win

49.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.76 – 1.26

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Lille win49%

Draw23%

Marseille win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.8%
2–19.5%
1–08.6%
2–07.6%
1–26.8%

Why the model likes this

Lille home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lille to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 23% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Lille and 1.26 for Marseille, a combined 3.02 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Lille

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Everton · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs OH Leuven · 6-3 (W)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Union St. Gilloise · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs RAAL La Louvière · 3-0 (W)

Marseille

2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nimes · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.