Liverpool vs Sunderland Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.69 expected goals for Liverpool and 1.06 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Liverpool the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws roughly 48% of the time.

Model pick

Liverpool to Win

52.1% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.69 – 1.06

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Liverpool win52%

Draw24%

Sunderland win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–111.5%
1–010.8%
2–19.7%
2–09.1%
0–16.8%

Why the model likes this

Liverpool home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sunderland away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Liverpool to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.69 goals for Liverpool and 1.06 for Sunderland, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Liverpool

2026-08-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-29T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 4-2 (W)
2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 1-1 (D)

Sunderland

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wrexham · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-30T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 2-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	38	26	7	5	44	85
2	Manchester City	38	23	9	6	42	78
3	Manchester United	38	20	11	7	19	71
4	Aston Villa	38	19	8	11	7	65
5	Liverpool	38	17	9	12	10	60
6	Bournemouth	38	13	18	7	4	57
7	Sunderland	38	14	12	12	-6	54
8	Brighton	38	14	11	13	6	53
9	Brentford	38	14	11	13	3	53
10	Chelsea	38	14	10	14	6	52
11	Fulham	38	15	7	16	-4	52
12	Newcastle	38	14	7	17	-2	49
13	Everton	38	13	10	15	-3	49
14	Leeds	38	11	14	13	-7	47
15	Crystal Palace	38	11	12	15	-10	45
16	Nottingham Forest	38	11	11	16	-3	44
17	Tottenham	38	10	11	17	-9	41
18	West Ham	38	10	9	19	-19	39
19	Burnley	38	4	10	24	-37	22
20	Wolves	38	3	11	24	-41	20

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.