The Home of the Set Fare Arena · Analysis updated 02:49 UTC
Livingston vs Stenhousemuir Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.86 expected goals for Livingston and 0.99 for Stenhousemuir, a combined total of 1.84. That distribution gives Stenhousemuir the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws roughly 63% of the time.
Model pick
Stenhousemuir or Draw
69.6% probability
Expected goals
0.86 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–015.8%
- 0–115.6%
- 1–013.6%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–27.7%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stenhousemuir to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 30% / 32% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.86 goals for Livingston and 0.99 for Stenhousemuir, a combined 1.84 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 28% and both teams to score at 36%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Model confidence
Stenhousemuir or Draw is the headline pick at 70% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Livingston
Stenhousemuir
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Ayr Utd | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Stenhousemuir | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Raith Rovers | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Livingston | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Dunfermline | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 7 | Inverness CT | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 10 | Morton | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.