Kenilworth Road · Analysis updated 03:46 UTC
Luton vs Stockport County Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Luton and 1.92 for Stockport County, a combined total of 4.01. That distribution gives Luton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.
Model pick
Luton or Draw
63.4% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.6%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–17.3%
- 1–27.0%
- 3–15.3%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Luton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 21% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Luton and 1.92 for Stockport County, a combined 4.01 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 75%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Model confidence
Luton or Draw is the headline pick at 63% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Luton
Stockport County
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Stockport County | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Bradford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Luton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Cambridge United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Sheffield Wednesday | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Mansfield Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Bromley | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Milton Keynes Dons | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Oxford United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Blackpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Leicester | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Wycombe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Notts County | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Burton Albion | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 | Stevenage | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Reading | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Wigan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Doncaster | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Leyton Orient | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Barnsley | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Plymouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Peterborough | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | AFC Wimbledon | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.