Malaga vs Al-Arabi SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.25 expected goals for Malaga and 1.75 for Al-Arabi SC, a combined total of 5.00. That distribution gives Malaga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws roughly 33% of the time.

Model pick

Malaga to Win

66.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

3.25 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Malaga win67%

Draw15%

Al-Arabi SC win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals87%

Over 3.5 goals73%

Both teams to score79%

Correct score

3–16.7%
2–16.2%
3–25.9%
4–15.5%
2–25.4%

Why the model likes this

Malaga home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Malaga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 15% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.25 goals for Malaga and 1.75 for Al-Arabi SC, a combined 5.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 87% and both teams to score at 79%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.

Recent form

Malaga

2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Ceuta FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Arabi SC · 4-2 (W)
2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Leicester · 3-3 (D)

Al-Arabi SC

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.