England · Non League Premier - Southern South · Regular Season - 614:00

14:00 UTC

Monday, 31 August 2026

· Analysis updated 01:53 UTC

Malvern Town vs Chippenham Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Malvern Town and 1.57 for Chippenham Town, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Malvern Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 60% of the time.

Model pick

Malvern Town or Draw

63.0% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.63 – 1.57

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Malvern Town win40%
Draw23%
Chippenham Town win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals40%
Both teams to score64%

Correct score

  • 1–110.4%
  • 2–18.5%
  • 1–28.2%
  • 2–26.7%
  • 1–06.6%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Malvern Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 23% / 37% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.63 goals for Malvern Town and 1.57 for Chippenham Town, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

  • Model confidence

    Malvern Town or Draw is the headline pick at 63% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Malvern Town

    Chippenham Town

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      Non League Premier - Southern South table

      Full league page →
      #TeamPWDLGDPts
      1Chertsey Town321047
      2Uxbridge321047
      3Bath City321027
      4Frome Town320156
      5Taunton Town320126
      6Hanworth Villa320126
      7Evesham United320116
      8Hanwell Town312015
      9Yate Town312015
      10Plymouth Parkway311164
      11Sholing311104
      12Chippenham Town3111-14
      13Bracknell Town3111-64
      14Basingstoke Town3102-13
      15Berkhamsted3102-23
      16Poole Town3102-23
      17Chichester City3102-33
      18Havant & Wville3102-33
      19Malvern Town3021-32
      20Gloucester City3012-21
      21Gosport Borough3012-21
      22Wimborne Town3012-31

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.