Manchester United vs Manchester City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Manchester United and 1.73 for Manchester City, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Manchester City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.

Model pick

Manchester City to Win

45.3% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Manchester United win31%

Draw23%

Manchester City win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.6%
1–29.2%
0–17.6%
2–17.4%
0–26.5%

Why the model likes this

Manchester United home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Manchester City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 31% / 23% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Manchester United and 1.73 for Manchester City, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Manchester United

2026-08-15T14:45:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 2-4 (L)
2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosenborg · 5-0 (W)

Manchester City

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	38	26	7	5	44	85
2	Manchester City	38	23	9	6	42	78
3	Manchester United	38	20	11	7	19	71
4	Aston Villa	38	19	8	11	7	65
5	Liverpool	38	17	9	12	10	60
6	Bournemouth	38	13	18	7	4	57
7	Sunderland	38	14	12	12	-6	54
8	Brighton	38	14	11	13	6	53
9	Brentford	38	14	11	13	3	53
10	Chelsea	38	14	10	14	6	52
11	Fulham	38	15	7	16	-4	52
12	Newcastle	38	14	7	17	-2	49
13	Everton	38	13	10	15	-3	49
14	Leeds	38	11	14	13	-7	47
15	Crystal Palace	38	11	12	15	-10	45
16	Nottingham Forest	38	11	11	16	-3	44
17	Tottenham	38	10	11	17	-9	41
18	West Ham	38	10	9	19	-19	39
19	Burnley	38	4	10	24	-37	22
20	Wolves	38	3	11	24	-41	20

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.