Manly United vs NWS Spirit Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Manly United and 1.06 for NWS Spirit, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives Manly United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

Manly United or Draw

69.5% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.28 – 1.06

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Manly United win42%

Draw28%

NWS Spirit win31%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–113.1%
1–012.4%
0–110.2%
0–09.7%
2–18.4%

Why the model likes this

Manly United home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Manly United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 28% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Manly United and 1.06 for NWS Spirit, a combined 2.34 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Manly United

2026-08-15T07:00:00.000Z · H vs NWS Spirit · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-08T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Marconi Stallions · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-02T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Rockdale City Suns · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-24T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Sydney Olympic · 4-0 (W)
2026-07-17T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Sydney FC U23 · 0-0 (D)

NWS Spirit

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

New South Wales NPL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	APIA Leichhardt Tigers	28	20	4	4	29	64
2	Sydney United	28	19	3	6	21	60
3	Marconi Stallions	27	17	4	6	26	55
4	Sutherland Sharks	27	13	4	10	9	43
5	Rockdale City Suns	27	12	4	11	6	40
6	Manly United	28	10	8	10	-2	38
7	SD Raiders	28	11	5	12	-5	38
8	NWS Spirit	28	11	4	13	-2	37
9	Sydney FC U23	28	10	7	11	-6	37
10	St George City FA	28	10	7	11	-13	37
11	Western Sydney Wanderers U23	28	10	5	13	7	35
12	Wollongong Wolves	27	9	5	13	-8	32
13	Blacktown City	27	8	7	12	-4	31
14	UNSW	27	9	4	14	-7	31
15	St. George Saints	28	7	3	18	-22	24
16	Sydney Olympic	28	6	4	18	-29	22

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.