Bulgaria · Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 415:00

15:00 UTC

Saturday, 29 August 2026

· Analysis updated 02:48 UTC

Maritsa Milevo vs Botev Plovdiv II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Maritsa Milevo and 1.11 for Botev Plovdiv II, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Maritsa Milevo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.

Model pick

Maritsa Milevo or Draw

66.2% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.19 – 1.11

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Maritsa Milevo win38%
Draw28%
Botev Plovdiv II win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Over 3.5 goals20%
Both teams to score47%

Correct score

  • 1–113.2%
  • 1–012.0%
  • 0–111.1%
  • 0–010.0%
  • 2–17.9%

Why the model likes this

  • Maritsa Milevo home form

    12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Maritsa Milevo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 28% / 34% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.19 goals for Maritsa Milevo and 1.11 for Botev Plovdiv II, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Maritsa Milevo

  • 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletik Kuklen · 1-0 (W)
  • 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dimitrovgrad · 1-0 (W)
  • 2026-07-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Beroe · 2-1 (W)
  • 2026-05-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 2-0 (W)
  • 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Neftochimic Burgas · 2-2 (D)

Botev Plovdiv II

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

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    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.