Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Elbląg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki and 1.18 for Olimpia Elbląg, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win44%

Draw26%

Olimpia Elbląg win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Olimpia Elbląg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki and 1.18 for Olimpia Elbląg, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ząbkovia Ząbki · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Troszyn · 4-1 (W)
2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jagiellonia II · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ząbkovia Ząbki · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Star Starachowice · 1-2 (L)

Olimpia Elbląg

2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia Zambrów · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. · 4-2 (W)
2026-07-31T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisła Płock II · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-25T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Grom Nowy Staw · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wda Świecie · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.