Estadio Olimpico de la UCV · Referee Y. Herrera · Analysis updated 02:52 UTC
Metropolitanos FC vs Puerto Cabello Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Metropolitanos FC and 1.20 for Puerto Cabello, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Metropolitanos FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.
Model pick
Metropolitanos FC to Win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.8%
- 0–17.4%
Why the model likes this
Puerto Cabello away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Metropolitanos FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Metropolitanos FC and 1.20 for Puerto Cabello, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Metropolitanos FC
Puerto Cabello
- 2026-08-15T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Zuliano · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Zamora FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Caracas FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Metropolitanos FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Carabobo FC · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo La Guaira | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Metropolitanos FC | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| 3 | Deportivo Tachira FC | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 24 |
| 4 | UCV | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | Portuguesa FC | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Carabobo FC | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 8 | Puerto Cabello | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | Zamora FC | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 | Caracas FC | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 | Rayo Zuliano | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 14 |
| 12 | Monagas SC | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -8 | 11 |
| 13 | Anzoátegui FC | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
| 14 | Trujillanos FC | 13 | 0 | 4 | 9 | -17 | 4 |
| 1 | Puerto Cabello | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Portuguesa FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 3 | Deportivo La Guaira | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | UCV | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 1 | Carabobo FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 2 | Deportivo Tachira FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Metropolitanos FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 1 | Deportivo Tachira FC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Metropolitanos FC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 4 | Puerto Cabello | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Portuguesa FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Deportivo La Guaira | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Rayo Zuliano | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Carabobo FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Monagas SC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Zamora FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Trujillanos FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | UCV | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Anzoátegui FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 | Caracas FC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.