Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas · Referee Jose Bessa, Portugal · Analysis updated 21:18 UTC
Moreirense vs SC Braga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.81 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.79 for SC Braga, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives SC Braga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.
Model pick
SC Braga to Win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
0.81 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.3%
- 0–211.9%
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.4%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates SC Braga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 17% / 23% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.81 goals for Moreirense and 1.79 for SC Braga, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 46%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
SC Braga to Win is the headline pick at 61% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 6.00 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 3.85 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 1.55 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 1.30 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | 3.35 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.95 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.83 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.45 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.30 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 1.06 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 0.5 | 8.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 6.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 4.5 | 1.10 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | 1.95 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | No | 1.75 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 2.38 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 1.12 | 10Bet |
Recent form
Moreirense
SC Braga
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | FC Porto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.