Yankee Stadium · Referee A. Villarreal · Analysis updated 04:12 UTC
New York City FC vs Inter Miami Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.17 expected goals for New York City FC and 1.80 for Inter Miami, a combined total of 3.97. That distribution gives New York City FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 53% of the time.
Model pick
New York City FC to Win
47.0% probability
Expected goals
2.17 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 1–17.4%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.6%
- 3–15.8%
Why the model likes this
New York City FC home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates New York City FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 21% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.17 goals for New York City FC and 1.80 for Inter Miami, a combined 3.97 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 74%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Recent form
New York City FC
- 2026-08-13T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-06T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Toronto FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Chicago Fire · 3-1 (W)
Inter Miami
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 35 |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 34 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FC | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 34 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 33 |
| 5 | Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 27 |
| 6 | FC Dallas | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 27 |
| 7 | St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 26 |
| 8 | Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 24 |
| 9 | Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 24 |
| 10 | Minnesota United FC | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | -5 | 24 |
| 11 | Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 22 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -6 | 22 |
| 13 | San Diego | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 21 |
| 14 | Austin | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | -28 | 14 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 43 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 38 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 30 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 29 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 6 | FC Cincinnati | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | New York City FC | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 25 |
| 9 | DC United | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | -3 | 24 |
| 10 | Orlando City SC | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 21 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | -7 | 20 |
| 13 | CF Montreal | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 17 |
| 14 | Philadelphia Union | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 | Atlanta United FC | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -13 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.