New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for New York Red Bulls and 1.66 for Toronto FC, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives New York Red Bulls the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

New York Red Bulls or Draw

65.7% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.89 – 1.66

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

New York Red Bulls win44%

Draw22%

Toronto FC win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–19.0%
2–18.5%
1–27.5%
2–27.1%
1–05.4%

Why the model likes this

New York Red Bulls home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates New York Red Bulls to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 22% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for New York Red Bulls and 1.66 for Toronto FC, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 69%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

New York Red Bulls

2026-08-01T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Orlando City SC · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-25T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlotte · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Philadelphia Union · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-24T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Kansas City · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-16T23:30:00.000Z · H vs New York City FC · 1-1 (D)

Toronto FC

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Houston Dynamo	19	11	2	6	4	35
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	21	34
3	Los Angeles FC	19	10	4	5	16	34
4	San Jose Earthquakes	18	10	3	5	13	33
5	Real Salt Lake	17	8	3	6	4	27
6	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	7	27
7	St. Louis City	18	7	5	6	0	26
8	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	0	24
9	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	-2	24
10	Minnesota United FC	18	6	6	6	-5	24
11	Colorado Rapids	18	7	1	10	2	22
12	Los Angeles Galaxy	20	5	7	8	-6	22
13	San Diego	18	5	6	7	3	21
14	Austin	18	4	5	9	-14	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	18	4	2	12	-28	14
1	Nashville SC	19	13	4	2	24	43
2	Inter Miami	19	11	5	3	10	38
3	New England Revolution	19	9	3	7	4	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	9	29
5	Charlotte	19	8	4	7	4	28
6	FC Cincinnati	19	7	6	6	1	27
7	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	7	26
8	New York Red Bulls	19	7	4	8	-11	25
9	DC United	19	5	9	5	-3	24
10	Orlando City SC	19	6	3	10	-17	21
11	Columbus Crew	19	5	5	9	-4	20
12	Toronto FC	19	4	8	7	-7	20
13	CF Montreal	19	4	5	10	-11	17
14	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	-8	16
15	Atlanta United FC	19	4	3	12	-13	15

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.