The Showgrounds · Analysis updated 23:01 UTC
Newry City AFC vs Warrenpoint Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.84 expected goals for Newry City AFC and 1.29 for Warrenpoint Town, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Newry City AFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.
Model pick
Newry City AFC to Win
50.4% probability
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–26.7%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Newry City AFC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 23% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.84 goals for Newry City AFC and 1.29 for Warrenpoint Town, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
Newry City AFC to Win is the headline pick at 50% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Newry City AFC
Warrenpoint Town
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ards | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Newington Youth | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Glenavon FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | H&W Welders | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Newry City AFC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 6 | Loughgall | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Moyola Park | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Queen's University | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Institute | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Annagh United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Dundela | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Strabane Athletic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Ballinamallard United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Warrenpoint Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Armagh City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Rathfriland | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.