Latham Park · Analysis updated 01:32 UTC
Newtown AFC vs Llanuwchllyn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.51 expected goals for Newtown AFC and 0.93 for Llanuwchllyn, a combined total of 4.44. That distribution gives Newtown AFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws roughly 16% of the time.
Model pick
Newtown AFC to Win
84.4% probability
Expected goals
3.51 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
16%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.5%
- 3–17.9%
- 4–07.5%
- 2–07.3%
- 4–16.9%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Newtown AFC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 84% / 10% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.51 goals for Newtown AFC and 0.93 for Llanuwchllyn, a combined 4.44 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 81% and both teams to score at 58%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
Newtown AFC to Win is the headline pick at 84% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Newtown AFC
Llanuwchllyn
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.