Nice vs Auxerre Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Nice and 1.30 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives Nice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

Nice or Draw

67.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.49 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Nice win42%

Draw25%

Auxerre win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.9%
1–09.2%
2–18.9%
0–18.0%
1–27.7%

Why the model likes this

Nice home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 25% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Nice and 1.30 for Auxerre, a combined 2.79 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Nice

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-08T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nimes · 4-0 (W)

Auxerre

2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sochaux · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Orleans · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs St Maur Lusitanos · 5-2 (W)
2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.