· Analysis updated 00:50 UTC
North Geelong Warriors vs Port Melbourne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for North Geelong Warriors and 0.86 for Port Melbourne, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives North Geelong Warriors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws roughly 37% of the time.
Model pick
North Geelong Warriors to Win
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.97 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.6%
- 2–011.4%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.5%
Why the model likes this
Port Melbourne away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates North Geelong Warriors to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 21% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.97 goals for North Geelong Warriors and 0.86 for Port Melbourne, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
North Geelong Warriors
Port Melbourne
- 2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Melbourne Knights · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T05:15:00.000Z · A vs Manningham United Blues · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Northcote City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-18T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Melbourne Srbija · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-11T04:00:00.000Z · H vs North Sunshine Eagles · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Victoria NPL 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Knights | 24 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 51 |
| 2 | Brunswick Juventus FC | 24 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 47 |
| 3 | Northcote City | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 46 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory II | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 40 |
| 5 | Bulleen Lions | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 39 |
| 6 | Melbourne Srbija | 24 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 36 |
| 7 | Eltham Redbacks FC | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 35 |
| 8 | Brunswick City | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 33 |
| 9 | Manningham United Blues | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | -14 | 30 |
| 10 | North Geelong Warriors | 24 | 9 | 1 | 14 | -18 | 28 |
| 11 | Western United II | 23 | 8 | 1 | 14 | -17 | 25 |
| 12 | Langwarrin | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 23 |
| 13 | North Sunshine Eagles | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -9 | 20 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | -38 | 17 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.