NWS Spirit vs St. George Saints Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for NWS Spirit and 0.90 for St. George Saints, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives NWS Spirit the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws roughly 43% of the time.

Model pick

NWS Spirit to Win

56.7% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.71 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

NWS Spirit win57%

Draw24%

St. George Saints win20%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–012.6%
1–111.3%
2–010.8%
2–19.7%
0–07.4%

Why the model likes this

St. George Saints away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates NWS Spirit to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 24% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for NWS Spirit and 0.90 for St. George Saints, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 49%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

NWS Spirit

St. George Saints

2026-08-15T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Western Sydney Wanderers U23 · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-08T08:30:00.000Z · H vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-01T08:30:00.000Z · H vs SD Raiders · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-25T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Sydney FC U23 · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Rockdale City Suns · 1-6 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

New South Wales NPL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	APIA Leichhardt Tigers	28	20	4	4	29	64
2	Sydney United	28	19	3	6	21	60
3	Marconi Stallions	27	17	4	6	26	55
4	Sutherland Sharks	27	13	4	10	9	43
5	Rockdale City Suns	27	12	4	11	6	40
6	Manly United	28	10	8	10	-2	38
7	SD Raiders	28	11	5	12	-5	38
8	NWS Spirit	28	11	4	13	-2	37
9	Sydney FC U23	28	10	7	11	-6	37
10	St George City FA	28	10	7	11	-13	37
11	Western Sydney Wanderers U23	28	10	5	13	7	35
12	Wollongong Wolves	27	9	5	13	-8	32
13	Blacktown City	27	8	7	12	-4	31
14	UNSW	27	9	4	14	-7	31
15	St. George Saints	28	7	3	18	-22	24
16	Sydney Olympic	28	6	4	18	-29	22

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.