Palmeiras vs Santos Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.88 for Santos, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Palmeiras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws roughly 31% of the time.

Model pick

Palmeiras to Win

69.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.30 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Palmeiras win69%

Draw18%

Santos win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

31%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

2–011.0%
2–19.7%
1–09.6%
1–18.4%
3–08.4%

Why the model likes this

Palmeiras home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Palmeiras to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 18% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Palmeiras and 0.88 for Santos, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 53%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Palmeiras

2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Porteno · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza EC · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortaleza EC · 3-0 (W)

Santos

2026-08-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Macara · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-09T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-05T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-29T00:30:00.000Z · H vs UCV · 4-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	-2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	1	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.