Aukstaitijos Stadium · Analysis updated 23:48 UTC
Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Panevėžys and 1.76 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives FK Zalgiris Vilnius the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws roughly 45% of the time.
Model pick
FK Zalgiris Vilnius to Win
54.7% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–06.3%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Zalgiris Vilnius to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 22% / 23% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Panevėžys and 1.76 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius, a combined 2.79 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Model confidence
FK Zalgiris Vilnius to Win is the headline pick at 55% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Panevėžys
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
A Lyga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 37 |
| 2 | Džiugas Telšiai | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 37 |
| 3 | Suduva Marijampole | 21 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 36 |
| 4 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 35 |
| 5 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 34 |
| 6 | Banga | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 33 |
| 7 | Panevėžys | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -17 | 23 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 24 | 4 | 10 | 10 | -15 | 22 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 23 | 2 | 7 | 14 | -28 | 13 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.