Paris Saint Germain vs Marseille Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.08 for Marseille, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Paris Saint Germain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws roughly 37% of the time.

Model pick

Paris Saint Germain to Win

62.7% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.20 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Paris Saint Germain win63%

Draw20%

Marseille win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

2–19.8%
2–09.1%
1–19.0%
1–08.3%
3–17.2%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Paris Saint Germain to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 20% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.08 for Marseille, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 59%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
Paris Saint Germain to Win is the headline pick at 63% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Paris Saint Germain

Marseille

2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nimes · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.