Parma vs Catania Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Parma and 1.18 for Catania, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Parma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Parma or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Parma win44%

Draw26%

Catania win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Parma home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Parma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Parma and 1.18 for Catania, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Parma

2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Catania · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampdoria · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 0-0 (D)

Catania

Head-to-head

2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · Parma 2-0 Catania (Coppa Italia)
2014-02-09T14:00:00.000Z · Parma 0-0 Catania (Serie A)
2013-09-22T13:00:00.000Z · Parma 0-0 Catania (Serie A)
2013-02-24T14:00:00.000Z · Parma 1-2 Catania (Serie A)
2012-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · Parma 0-2 Catania (Serie A)
2012-01-28T17:00:00.000Z · Parma 1-1 Catania (Serie A)
2011-12-21T19:45:00.000Z · Parma 3-3 Catania (Serie A)
2011-01-22T17:00:00.000Z · Parma 2-0 Catania (Serie A)
2010-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · Parma 1-2 Catania (Serie A)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.